The situation in the Middle East is moving along a thin red line following the latest developments last night (July 30, 2024) and at its most critical juncture since October 7 and the Hamas attack on Israel. Within hours of each other, the IDF eliminated one of the most important members of the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah organization, Fouad Shoukr, who was located in Beirut, in targeted, strategic strikes. Subsequently they eliminated Ismail Haniyeh – the de facto leader of Hamas outside Palestinian territory – on Iranian territory, where he traveled to attend the inauguration of the new Iranian President.
The two strikes represent a huge blow to Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” and in any case create an explosive mixture of escalation that could lead, in part, to retaliation both to the Israel-Hezbollah axis in Lebanon and to Iran’s direct involvement – in a déjà vu of the direct confrontation with Israel that took place last April.
The neutralization of the two key members of Hezbollah and Hamas sends multiple signals to Iran, and internationally, but also to the leadership of the Lebanese organization, and in particular its leader Hassan Nasrallah, on behalf of Israel:
- The message that no one is safe and that Israel’s security apparatus has significantly infiltrated within these organizations
- A message to Washington included in the neutralization of Fouad Shoukr – essentially responsible for the deadly 1983 attack in Beirut on a facility where US Marines were stationed. Israel has been sniping at the US for not hesitating to neutralize a Hezbollah operative that Washington has failed to neutralize for four decades. Moreover, such a development may permanently bury the possibility of a ceasefire/captive exchange agreement in Gaza for which the Biden administration has been pressing the Netanyahu government, and
- A message, strategically, both to the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip and directly to Tehran (at a time when it is in the process of political transition with a new president after the helicopter crash)
The day after the elimination of the two cadres will not be easy and in any case portends potentially serious escalations towards both a scenario of generalized conflict and an Israel-Hezbollah war in southern Lebanon – as a repeat of the July 2006 war. However, two things remain to be seen: How Hezbollah will react, and especially whether it will engage in a retaliatory process using strategic weapons (precision missiles) against Israel, and how Iran will respond directly or through proxies (Houthis, Iraq, Syria) to an attack (carried out within its territory) that irreparably damages its prestige after losing two valuable allies in less than 12 hours.
The region has entered, irreversibly, a very critical juncture and the next 24 hours will test everyone’s resilience in the face of a generalized escalation (or whether deterrence can finally work due to the strategic nature of the strikes).
By John Ioannou