As rumors of an imminent Turkish invasion in north-eastern Syria are intensifying, Geopolitical Cyprus sources suggest that in the first phase of the operation, the Turkish military will create some (up to 5) outposts/observation points inside Syria’s territory. Just like the observation points that occurred from the Astana process set up by Russia, Turkey and Iran in the broader Idlib area (north-western Syria).

observation points idlib
Observation points in broader Idlib. Red dots: Russia; Blue dots: Turkey; Orange dots: Iran

The new observation points will likely be set up on axis (approximately 76 km long) between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, East of the Euphrates River (see maps). According to the same sources, these observation points might also be used in the future for the further advancement of Turkish military forces and their Syrian proxies-allies (Free Syrian Army) in the context of a new operation for the creation of a (military) enclave.

We estimate, always with a degree of risk, that the advancement of the Turkish military will reach a depth of around 30 km within Syria’s territories within the framework of the would-be “safe zone”. These developments might start taking place as soon as within the next 48 hours.

observation points 1

Rough depiction of the Tal Abyad – Ras al-Ayn axis

observation points 2
Rough depiction of the possible area of Turkish operations and observations points. Potential “safe zone” territories.

 

By the Geopolitical Cyprus Team